Season Forecast

The season is over — this is the final forecast we generated, frozen before the last round (data as of 2026-05-24). We simulated 50,000 possible seasons using Elo ratings that update after every match, Poisson goal models, and Club Elo tilt.

Data correct as of

Season complete — final pre-matchday forecast

Likely Possible Unlikely

How to read this chart

  • Each row is a Premier League club, sorted by predicted finishing position.
  • Each column is a league position (1st to 20th). The number in each cell is the probability (%) that team finishes in that position.
  • Darker cells mean higher probability. Hover or tap for exact figures.
  • Zone backgrounds mark the title (1st), Champions League and Europa League (2nd-5th), and relegation (18th-20th).

Methodology

  • We ran 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the then-remaining 1 gameweeks (10 fixtures).
  • Each simulation uses "hot" Elo ratings — after every simulated match, both teams' Elo ratings update based on the result and margin. This means a team on a winning streak gets stronger within that simulation, just like real momentum.
  • Match scores are sampled from a Poisson distribution. Expected goals for each team are derived from the Elo difference plus Club Elo tilt (a measure of how many goals a team's matches tend to produce).
  • Elo updates are weighted by goal margin: a 3-0 win shifts ratings ~1.7× more than a 1-0 win (proportional to √margin).
  • Teams are ranked using Premier League tiebreakers: points, then goal difference, then goals scored.
  • Elo ratings from Club Elo. Standings from SportMonks. Updated weekly.

See also